Indonesian Coffee Double vs Triple Pick: 2025 Cost Guide

A practical 2025 breakeven method and simple calculator for small-to-mid roasters to decide if the triple-pick premium on Indonesian lots beats double-pick once you factor defect rates, expected yield, roast shrinkage and roastery labor.

If you’ve ever paid a triple-pick premium and still found yourself hand-sorting stones and quakers at the roaster, you’re not alone. We process and export Indonesian coffee every day, and we’ve seen triple-picked lots pay back handsomely. We’ve also seen them burn budget for no measurable gain. The difference is knowing your breakeven.

This 2025 guide shows exactly how we evaluate double-picked vs triple-picked Indonesian coffee. Use it as a quick green coffee yield calculator for your own sample data. No fluff. Just a clear method you can put into your spreadsheet.

What “double pick” and “triple pick” actually mean in Indonesia

“Double-picked” generally means two passes of hand-sorting after primary processing. “Triple-picked” is a third pass, usually with tighter tolerance on visual defects. In practice, the spec is buyer-driven. The label alone isn’t enough.

What changes with each pass:

Visible defect removal. Partial black, insect damage, broken/chipped, shells, a few quakers by appearance, and foreign matter.
Uniformity. Slightly tighter screen consistency and density spread, which can reduce uneven roasts.
Roastery labor. Less time spent on your own pick-down if the upstream sorting is honest.

What defect difference should you expect?

Across Sumatra wet-hulled Grade 1 style lots, here’s what we’ve consistently measured in 2024–2025:

Double-pick inbound triage at roaster: 1.5–3.5% by weight removed pre-roast.
Triple-pick inbound triage: 0.4–1.0% by weight.
Quaker reduction after roast: often 30–60% fewer quakers with triple-pick, assuming proper maturity and density sorting upstream. It’s not zero because quakers are not only a visual defect.

Those are real averages from the floor. Your origin, lot and spec will swing the numbers, so sample your own.

2025 price reality: how much more does triple-pick cost?

In 2025, triple-picked premiums on Sumatra-type Arabica commonly sit at:

Premium: 0.25–0.55 USD/lb green over the same lot specified as double-pick.
Per 60 kg bag: roughly 33–73 USD difference.

We’ve quoted and shipped both ends of that range this year. Market tightness, labor in origin, and how aggressive the spec is will move you around within it. If you need help benchmarking your quote against current Indonesian offers, feel free to Contact us on whatsapp.

The breakeven method: when does triple-pick pay for itself?

Here’s the simple way we look at it. Compare cost per roasted pound considering inbound triage and roast shrink.

Key inputs for your spreadsheet:

DP_price: landed cost per lb of double-pick.
TP_price: landed cost per lb of triple-pick.
d1: your measured inbound triage loss for double-pick (as a decimal). Example 0.025 for 2.5%.
d2: your measured inbound triage loss for triple-pick.
r: roast shrinkage percentage. Use your own profile data. Typical Sumatra wet-hulled at medium to medium-dark is 14–17%.
L: roastery labor/overhead to hand-pick per roasted lb if you plan to pick down DP but not TP.

Formulas:

Roasted yield factor = (1 − d) × (1 − r)
Cost per roasted lb = price ÷ roasted yield factor + L

Breakeven premium you can afford for TP:

If you ignore labor: p_break-even ≈ DP_price × [(1 − d2)/(1 − d1) − 1]
Include labor if TP eliminates most pick-down: increase the breakeven by your labor saved per roasted lb.

Worked example (use your own numbers!)

Assume:

DP_price = 5.50 USD/lb landed. d1 = 2.5%.
TP_price = 5.90 USD/lb landed. d2 = 0.8%.
Roast shrink r = 15%.
Labor to pick DP L = 0.08 USD/lb roasted. Labor for TP = 0.00.

Roasted yield factor DP = 0.975 × 0.85 = 0.8288. Cost per roasted lb DP = 5.50/0.8288 + 0.08 = 6.72 USD.

Roasted yield factor TP = 0.992 × 0.85 = 0.8432. Cost per roasted lb TP = 5.90/0.8432 + 0.00 = 7.00 USD.

Delta = 0.28 USD/lb roasted in favor of DP. With these assumptions, triple-pick doesn’t pay back on yield and labor alone.

What premium would break even? p_break-even (ignoring labor) = 5.50 × [(0.992/0.975) − 1] ≈ 0.096 USD/lb. If TP also saves 0.08 USD/lb in labor, your workable premium rises to about 0.18 USD/lb. Most 2025 TP premiums are above that. So you need a quality upside you can monetize.

Practical takeaways:

If your DP triage is closer to 3.5–4.0% and TP is 0.4–0.6%, breakeven premiums move up into the 0.20–0.30 USD/lb range. That’s where TP can make sense purely on yield.
If you’re selling to accounts that penalize quakers or demand tighter cup scores, the price you can charge may increase enough to justify TP.
If you roast darker for blends, DP often wins on cost per shot without hurting the cup.

Do fewer quakers and better uniformity actually save money?

Yes, but quantify it. Quakers don’t just hurt cupping scores. They force throw-outs or blend dilution after roast. A 1% post-roast remove-and-replace costs roughly your roasted cost per lb. If TP reduces quakers by half and saves even 0.5% discard at roast, add that saving to the breakeven. Many small roasters forget this line.

And don’t ignore time. If your team spends an hour hand-sorting a 60 kg bag at 20–25 USD/hour, that’s 0.08–0.11 USD/lb roasted in labor. Triple-pick that truly removes foreign matter and chips can free that hour.

How to calculate landed cost per roasted pound in 2025

Use your real numbers. A quick framework:

Landed cost per lb green = FOB or ExW price + export + inland + ocean/air + insurance + destination fees + financing.
Cost per roasted lb = landed ÷ [(1 − inbound triage) × (1 − roast shrink)].
Roast shrinkage percentage: use your profile data. Medium Sumatra wet-hulled often sits at 14–17%. Java washed Grade 1 may be 12–15%. Natural-process Bali can be 13–16%.

If you need a lightweight spreadsheet template that mirrors this “green coffee yield calculator,” View our products and ping us with the SKU you’re evaluating. We’ll share our calculator and fill it with live spec numbers for that lot.

When does double-pick make more sense?

From our own cupping room experience:

Dark roast blends and espresso bases. If you’re targeting chocolate, low acidity and syrupy body, DP Grade 1 or even solid Grade 2 can deliver. Consider value-forward options like Sumatra Tiger Grade 3 Special Green Coffee Beans for cost-sensitive blends.
Past-crop or aged profiles. If you’re intentionally chasing aged nuance or musty notes for blends, TP’s visual perfection isn’t the driver. See Past Crop Green Coffee Beans or Musty Cup Green Coffee Beans (Aged Arabica).

When triple-pick shines

Premium single-origin lines where you charge for cleanliness and uniformity. Triple-pick often pays back through price and reputation, not just yield math.
Accounts requiring stringent defect specs or stone-free guarantees. In our portfolio, premium Sumatra-style lots like Blue Batak Green Coffee Beans, Sumatra Mandheling Green Coffee Beans, and Sumatra Lintong Green Coffee Beans (Lintong Grade 1) can be contracted with tighter sorting if that’s what you need.

How to sample and count defects so your numbers are real

Use a consistent method so your breakeven isn’t a guess.

Sample size. 350 g or 300 g per SCA approach. We like 350 g for Indonesian lots because defect incidence is low but varied.
What to count. Full defects (black, sour, fungus damage, insect bored) and partials. Count foreign matter. Note screen variance and color outliers likely to quaker.
Convert to weight discard. Remove the defects you’d realistically pull before roast. Weigh the rejected fraction and divide by sample weight for d1 or d2.
Validate after roast. Track quakers and any post-roast discard. This closes the loop on your model.

Three non-obvious tips we’ve learned:

Run two independent counts per lot. Differences over 0.5% discard usually point to sampling error.
Align to your production reality. If your team won’t hand-pick more than 10 minutes per batch, model that limitation into defect removal assumptions.
Lock roast shrinkage per origin and profile. Don’t use a generic 15% for all Indonesians. Wet-hulled vs fully washed vs natural will swing your r.

Quick answers to what people ask us most

How much more does triple-picked cost in 2025? Typically 0.25–0.55 USD/lb green over a comparable double-pick on Sumatra-type Arabica. Wider for microlots or strict specs.
What defect rate difference should I expect? Double-pick 1.5–3.5% inbound triage at the roaster. Triple-pick 0.4–1.0%. Your sample decides.
At what premium does triple-pick break even? Often only 0.10–0.30 USD/lb if inbound triage drops by 2–3 percentage points and you save 0.05–0.10 USD/lb in labor. Run your own numbers.
Does triple-pick reduce quakers and sorting time? Usually yes. We see 30–60% fewer quakers and up to an hour saved per 60 kg bag, depending on your shop’s standards.
How do I calculate landed cost per roasted lb? Landed green ÷ [(1 − inbound triage) × (1 − roast shrinkage percentage)]. Then add any labor per roasted lb.
When is double-pick good enough? Dark roasts, blends, and programs where price-to-body matters more than pristine visuals.
What sample size and method? 300–350 g, SCA-style defect count, then validate with a small production roast and quaker tally.

Here’s the thing. Whether triple-picked is “worth it” depends on your own defect counts and customers. If the math says the premium won’t pay back on yield and time, but your buyers will pay you more for the cleaner cup, then it’s worth it. If not, don’t force it. We’ll help you spec the right grade for your profile and margin target. Need us to run the breakeven with your sample data? Contact us on whatsapp.