A practical, numbers-forward walkthrough for turning ICE NY C futures into a clean 2025 FOB Medan quote for Sumatra Mandheling and Gayo arabicas. Realistic differentials, basis-month choices, quality allowances, shrink assumptions, and c/lb to USD/MT conversions—done step by step.
If you price Sumatra Mandheling against NY C, one wrong assumption can swing your FOB by $100 per metric ton. We’ve quoted thousands of tons out of Medan and Belawan, and the same questions always come up: Which basis month? What’s realistic for the differential? Do quality allowances sit inside or outside the diff? Let’s make this simple and concrete for 2025.
The 3 pillars of Indonesian arabica pricing on NY C
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A clear, spec-backed differential. Your differential should be attached to a named, standard spec. For Sumatra Mandheling G1 (wet-hulled, Grade 1, ≤13% moisture, 15–19 screen mix, standard sort), we’re seeing 2025 working levels around +30 to +45 c/lb FOB Medan, with tighter or certified lots pushing higher. Gayo microlots often command a premium above Mandheling.
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The right basis month and roll logic. Indonesian shipments are prone to weather and port delays. The basis month you pick for June–July shipment will drive whether you need to roll, and at what cost.
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The arithmetic. Conversions and contract assumptions matter. If you’re off by 1.2 c/lb, you’re off by about $26 per MT. Small numbers, big money.
This leads us to a worked example you can reuse.
Step-by-step worksheet: from NY C to a 2025 FOB Medan quote
Let’s price Sumatra Mandheling G1 for June–July shipment. Assume the following live-style parameters.
- NY C futures: 195.50 c/lb (example print)
- Differential: +38.00 c/lb (Mandheling G1, FOB Medan)
- Quality allowance: +2.00 c/lb for extra sorting to a tighter defect count (outside the base diff)
- Basis-month roll cost: +1.20 c/lb to move from Jul (N) to Sep (U) if shipment slips
Calculation in c/lb:
- Base: 195.50 + 38.00 = 233.50 c/lb
- Add quality allowance: 233.50 + 2.00 = 235.50 c/lb
- Add roll (if needed): 235.50 + 1.20 = 236.70 c/lb
Convert to USD/MT:
- Quick rule: 1 c/lb = $22.046 per metric ton
- 236.70 c/lb × 22.046 = $5,218 per MT FOB Medan (≈ $5.22/kg)
Practical takeaways:
- Keep c/lb and $/MT side by side to avoid rounding surprises.
- Use a base diff for the standard spec, then layer premiums or allowances as separate line items for transparency.
- Note that roll cost depends on the spread at the time of the roll, not when you sign the contract.
Contextual product examples:
- Standard Mandheling G1 profile aligned to this worksheet: Sumatra Mandheling Green Coffee Beans.
- Gayo premiums, typically priced above Mandheling: Lasuna Special Green Coffee Beans, Jumbo Eighteen Plus Green Coffee Beans, and Gayo Long Berry Green Coffee Beans.
What’s a realistic Sumatra Mandheling G1 differential in 2025 and how is it applied to NY C?
We’re quoting +30 to +45 c/lb for clean Mandheling G1 FOB Medan. Logistics tightness and wet-hulled availability have kept Indonesian arabica differentials firm in recent months, and we don’t expect a sudden collapse early in the mid-year ship window. Apply it as a straight add to NY C, then convert to your preferred unit.
Application: NY C last + differential + any outside-the-diff quality premiums/allowances + basis-month roll if applicable = FOB Medan price.
How do I convert NY C 195.50 c/lb into a FOB Medan price per metric ton?
Two ways:
- Multiply by 22.046. Example: 195.50 c/lb × 22.046 = $4,310/MT
- Or turn cents into dollars per pound and multiply by 2,204.62. Example: $1.955/lb × 2,204.62 = $4,310/MT
For a full FOB, add your differential and other line items first in c/lb, then convert once at the end. This avoids rounding errors.
Which ICE NY C basis month should I choose for a June–July shipment from Indonesia?
If your shipment is June–July, Jul (N) is the natural nearby month. But in our experience, Indonesian shipments can slip by 2–3 weeks due to heavy rains, religious holidays, or port congestion. Many buyers choose Sep (U) to reduce the probability of rolling. If you do pick Jul (N), include a clear roll clause and budget 1–2 c/lb for a potential carry to Sep (U). If the market is in backwardation, you could even benefit on the roll, but don’t plan on it.
Do quality allowances (defects, screen, moisture) go inside the differential or as a separate line item?
We recommend separating them. Keep the differential tied to a defined base spec. Then add premiums for tighter sorts (screen 18-heavy, triple-pick, or special prep) as a clear c/lb line above the diff. Likewise, any agreed allowance or claim rules for defects or moisture should sit outside the differential to avoid confusion later. We apply this approach consistently across Mandheling and Gayo. For instance, a Gayo microlot like Lasuna Special Green Coffee Beans typically prices at a premium over standard diff due to sort and cup.
How does the USD/IDR exchange rate affect the final FOB quote from an Indonesian exporter?
Exporters manage a large cost base in IDR. When IDR weakens vs USD, differentials can tighten as USD revenues stretch further. When IDR strengthens, we often need a higher diff to keep the same IDR margin. A simple sanity check: every $22/MT change is about 1 c/lb. If a currency move shifts our cost base by $60/MT, that’s roughly 2.7 c/lb. We don’t recommend indexing your contract to IDR, but do sanity-check a stale quote if USD/IDR has moved 3–5% since you received it.
What shrink or weight loss factor should I assume for Indonesian arabica when pricing?
For wet-hulled Mandheling/Gayo FOB Medan, we budget 0.3–0.7% handling and transit shrink from final milling to FOB outturn, depending on bag type and season. Shrink is embedded in the exporter’s yield assumptions and thus reflected in the differential. You shouldn’t add a separate shrink line on an FOB quote unless your contract calls for a specific bag change or atypical handling. Target moisture is typically ≤13% for export stability.
How do I avoid double-counting freight when pricing NY C + differential?
FOB Medan includes inland haulage to port, export docs, and port/FOB charges. It excludes ocean freight and insurance. The differential does not include ocean freight. If you later ask for CIF or CFR, ocean freight and insurance are added on top of the FOB. A common mistake is to add a “freight” line on an FOB quote. Don’t. Confirm with your exporter which FOB charges are included in the diff to ensure there’s no duplicate port or documentation charges.
Common mistakes we see (and how to sidestep them)
- Mixing spec and diff. Buyers request a tighter sort or heavy screen, but keep a standard diff. Result: expectation gaps on cup and price. Fix: anchor your diff to a written spec and add a premium line for extras.
- Converting too early. Converting NY C to $/MT before adding differentials and allowances creates rounding errors. Add everything in c/lb first, then convert once.
- Basis month optimism. Choosing Jul (N) for late July shipments without a roll clause. Our rule of thumb: if your window touches late July, default to Sep (U) unless your logistics are locked.
- Currency drift. Accepting a 10-day-old quote when USD/IDR moved 4% in the interim. Ask for a refresh; it’s usually a quick update on our side.
When this advice applies (and when it doesn’t)
This guide targets Indonesian arabica, wet-hulled and fully washed Sumatra/Batak/Gayo shipments, quoted FOB Medan against ICE NY C. It doesn’t cover robusta/London futures, hedging strategies, or roaster margin modeling. If you’re exploring other origins or CFR/CIF quotes into Europe or North America, adapt the basis-month logic to your transit times and add ocean freight separately. For other Indonesian profiles like Lintong or Blue Batak, differentials can vary; see Sumatra Lintong Green Coffee Beans or Blue Batak Green Coffee Beans for spec context.
Resources and next steps
- Quick conversion cheat: 1 c/lb = $22.046/MT = $0.022046/kg. Keep this on your desk.
- Typical Mandheling 2025 working diff: +30 to +45 c/lb FOB Medan for G1. Gayo premiums run higher depending on prep and cup.
- Basis-month pick for June–July: prefer Sep (U) unless bookings are locked and early. Budget 1–2 c/lb for a potential roll.
If you’d like a live worksheet using your exact spec, shipment window and basis-month scenario, reach out and we’ll run the math with you in minutes. Need help with your specific situation? Contact us on whatsapp. You can also browse our current Indonesian arabica offerings here: View our products.
In our experience, a transparent, line-by-line quote builds trust and saves days of back-and-forth. Price to a spec, pick the right basis month, and keep the conversions tight. Everything else gets a lot easier from there.