Indonesian Coffee Air vs Sea Shipping: 2025 Cost Guide

A numbers-first, field-tested method to find your exact break-even point where LCL ocean beats air for Indonesian green coffee in 2025. Includes a simple formula, current cost ranges, and two worked examples you can copy.

If you want to stop guessing and know the exact shipment size where ocean beats air for Indonesian green coffee, here’s the method we use every week. We’ll give you the formula, the current ranges we’re seeing on Indonesia to US and EU lanes, and two worked examples you can copy.

The fast rule of thumb for 2025

In our experience, with 2025 spot markets and recent surcharges, the break-even where LCL ocean becomes cheaper than air for Indonesian coffee usually lands here:

Indonesia to USA. 200–400 kg actual weight, depending on density, last‑mile, and whether you hit the LCL minimums. West Coast tends to break even a bit lower than East Coast because air capacity is better to LAX.
Indonesia to EU. 220–380 kg. EU has strong LCL consolidation and predictable DTHC, so ocean begins to win slightly earlier than the US in many cases.

If you’re moving fewer than 6 bags of 60 kg each, air can still be viable. Above 8–10 bags, LCL ocean almost always wins on cost. But let’s do the math.

The simple break-even formula we use

You want door-to-door comparability. That means both quotes must include pickup, origin terminal handling, linehaul, destination handling, customs/brokerage, and last‑mile delivery. Here’s the framework.

Air chargeable weight (kg) = max(actual kg, volumetric kg). Volumetric kg = (L × W × H in cm) / 6000. One CBM = 167 kg for air.
LCL ocean chargeable measure = max(CBM, metric tons). LCL bills by W/M. One CBM equals 1000 kg. Green coffee is dense, so ocean is usually charged by CBM.

Let:

W = actual shipment weight in kg.
d = packed density in kg/CBM. Palletized green coffee typically runs 350–500 kg/CBM. Loose sacks in a dense stack can be 500–600 kg/CBM.
CBM = W / d.
k_air = all-in air variable rate per kg, including fuel and security surcharge.
F_air = fixed air costs. AWB, screening, origin/destination handling, plus delivery if quoted as a fixed number.
k_lcl = all-in LCL variable rate per CBM. Include BAF and any 2025 ETS/low-sulfur components if quoted separately.
F_lcl = fixed ocean costs. Origin CFS/THC, destination CFS/DTHC, documentation, customs, plus delivery if quoted fixed.
M_lcl = minimum LCL variable charge. Typically 1.0 CBM minimum applies.

Then:

Total Air = F_air + k_air × max(W, 167 × CBM)
Total LCL = F_lcl + max(k_lcl × CBM, k_lcl × 1.0) if a 1 CBM minimum applies.

Assuming you’re above the LCL minimum, the break-even weight is: W_break-even = (F_lcl − F_air) / (k_air − k_lcl/d)

Two pro tips that change the result fast:

Use your real packed density. If you palletize short, your density drops and ocean looks worse because CBM rises. Ask your warehouse for pallet dims before quoting.
Make sure both quotes cover the same scope. Leaving out destination THC on LCL or last‑mile on air skews the math.

Need a quick sanity check or a spreadsheet template with these formulas preloaded? If you want us to run your lane with current surcharges, just Contact us on whatsapp.

Worked examples you can copy

We’ll use realistic 2025 ranges we’re seeing ex-Indonesia. Markets move monthly, so treat these as directional.

Example 1: 300 kg micro-lot, Jakarta to Los Angeles, door-to-door

Assumptions: density d = 350 kg/CBM. CBM = 300/350 = 0.86 CBM. Air variable k_air = 4.80 USD/kg all-in. F_air = 240 USD. LCL variable k_lcl = 200 USD/CBM. F_lcl = 1,050 USD. LCL minimum = 1.0 CBM.

Air cost = 240 + 4.80 × max(300, 167 × 0.86). Volumetric is 144 kg. Chargeable is 300 kg. Total Air ≈ 240 + 1,440 = 1,680 USD.
LCL cost = 1,050 + max(200 × 0.86, 200 × 1.0). Effective variable = 200. Total LCL ≈ 1,250 USD.

Verdict. Ocean wins by about 430 USD. Transit time is the trade-off. Air lands in roughly 5–8 days door-to-door. LCL is 24–32 days door depending on the devanning schedule.

Example 2: 1,000 kg lot, Surabaya to Rotterdam, door-to-door

Assumptions: d = 450 kg/CBM. CBM = 2.22. Air k_air = 5.40 USD/kg all-in. F_air = 300 USD. LCL k_lcl = 150 USD/CBM. F_lcl = 900 USD. LCL minimum = 1.0 CBM.

Air cost = 300 + 5.40 × max(1000, 167 × 2.22). Volumetric is 371 kg. Chargeable is 1000 kg. Total Air ≈ 5,700 USD.
LCL cost = 900 + max(150 × 2.22, 150 × 1.0). Variable = 333. Total LCL ≈ 1,233 USD.

Verdict. Ocean is the clear winner. Air only makes sense if you need immediate launch stock and the gross margin supports it.

Do 60 kg sacks get priced by actual or volumetric weight for air?

Short answer. Actual weight almost every time. A 60 kg bag occupies roughly 0.09–0.11 CBM when packed. Volumetric weight at 167 kg/CBM is around 15–18 kg per bag. Since 60 kg exceeds that, carriers bill on actual. Three out of five air shipments we book are charged purely on actual weight because green coffee is dense.

What really moves the break-even in 2025?

Here’s what we’ve seen push the line since late 2024:

Fuel and bunker surcharges. Air fuel surcharges float with jet fuel. Ocean BAF rose in Q4 2024 and early 2025 on longer routings and ETS/low-sulfur costs in Europe. Small changes here move break-even by 30–80 kg.
Peak season and GRI/PSS. General Rate Increases and Peak Season Surcharges hit Transpacific LCL hardest in Q3–Q4. Budget a 10–20 percent swing on the LCL variable piece.
Port and terminal handling charges. DTHC in US gateways varies by LCL operator. If your quote excludes DTHC or chassis/PSC, add it back, or you’ll think air is cheaper when it isn’t.
Packaging density. Palletize tighter and your LCL CBM drops. That can pull break-even 50–120 kg earlier.

Takeaway. Ask your forwarder to show k_air, F_air, k_lcl, F_lcl, and minimums line by line. Then plug into the formula.

Does destination matter? US vs EU

Yes. The EU often shows marginally lower LCL fixed costs and steadier DTHC. The US adds ISF and sometimes higher CFS fees. We typically see EU break-even 20–40 kg lower than US on comparable density. Air to the EU can also price slightly higher in some months, which reinforces ocean earlier.

LCL vs air: how many 60 kg bags should I consolidate?

We recommend consolidating to at least 8–10 bags before you switch to LCL on US/EU lanes in 2025. At 5 bags (300 kg), run the numbers. With normal density, LCL often beats air, but not always if your last‑mile is long or if a promotion demands speed.

A useful middle path. Fly 2–3 bags by air so you can launch, and ship the balance by LCL. We do this often for limited releases like Bali, Java, Gayo & Mandheling - Wine Green Arabica Coffee Beans, peaberries, or Kopi Luwak. High-margin SKUs justify a small air uplift if they unlock earlier revenue.

FOB vs CIF when you compare quotes

If you’re buying FOB Indonesia, you pay ocean or air plus all destination costs. If you’re offered CIF to port, the seller pays ocean linehaul and insurance to the named port. You still pay destination THC, customs, and delivery. Compare apples to apples. Convert CIF to your door cost by adding DTHC, brokerage, bond, and last‑mile. Only then compare to air.

Jakarta vs Surabaya: does origin change the math?

A bit. Jakarta has more air capacity and frequent consolidations, so air rates are often 3–8 percent lower than Surabaya. Surabaya LCL usually feeds via Singapore or Tanjung Pelepas, which can add a few days and slightly higher origin CFS. Net effect on break-even is modest, but if you’re on tight timelines, Jakarta routings can save a week door-to-door.

Practical tips we use with buyers

Lock density early. Decide pallet count and stack height, then get real dims. Every 0.1 CBM you save moves the ocean curve down.
Quote door-to-door both modes. Include pickup, THC, documentation, customs, and delivery. Then your decision is clean.
Watch minimums and short-haul delivery. LCL minimums and LTL delivery can swing the 200–300 kg zone either way. Price delivery by postal code.
Split strategy. Sample or launch stock by air. Main lot by LCL. This often nets the best margin and cash flow.

When air still makes sense

We green-light air for urgent micro-lots, limited seasonal releases, or premium SKUs where freshness and speed pay back. Think Kopi Luwak Green Coffee Beans (Authentic Wild Civet Arabica), Sumatra Super Peaberry Green Coffee Beans, or small runs of Musty Cup Green Coffee Beans (Aged Arabica). For volume workhorses like Sumatra Mandheling Green Coffee Beans or Arabica Java Ijen Grade 1 Green Coffee Beans, LCL or FCL wins 10 times out of 10.

Bottom line

Under 200–250 kg. Air is often competitive and faster. Check last‑mile distance.
250–400 kg. Run the formula. Surcharges and density decide.
400 kg and above. LCL almost always wins on cost for 2025.

If you want help pricing your exact lane with current BAF/GRI and terminal charges, ping us and we’ll send a filled-in worksheet for your shipment. Or you can browse current origins and choose your next lot here. View our products.